beware of fake experts and common knowledge

there is an interesting video that Michael Shuren (paxamericana on youtube) published : "What the US Got Wrong About Afghanistan that Doomed the War", Aug. 2024 at some point, he talks about how, in years working in afghanistan during the us afghanistan war (2001-2021), he never encountered an actual afghanistan expert he was constantly surounded by people that weren't afghanistan experts, but thought they were self-declared expertise is a receipe for disaster, diligence it when you encounter it similarly, humility about one's competence is paramount, remember this when thinking you are an expert about anything premices Michael Shuren also talks about how the US approach to afghanistan was often based on untrue or untested premices i find that, very often, untrue premices that somehow became universal truth that keep getting repeated over and over are tough to kill my first year in college, every single freshman told every other freshman that a big 4 audit internship was a surfire way to get into the best investment banks in town although it is probably great training, those same students were quite surprised when banks' doors proved harder to open with a big 4 internship than what common knowledge suggested i think the key error here is thinking prevalence of said statement = truthfulness of statement something being repeated over and over does not make it true back

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